Coming as the biggest shock to the NDA government the opinion polls conducted in Madhya Pradesh showed that Congress might lead this time in Madhya Pradesh. Highly dissatisfied with the government rule, the people of Madhya Pradesh have clearly shown their dissatisfaction in the form of their opinion.
A survey conducted by the ABP News Channel named the Mood of the Nation survey, it was predicted that Congress might acquire 49% of the vote share whereas BJP, only 34%.
The poll was conducted in the month of May 2018 and since then significant political developments have taken place in Madhya Pradesh like Chief Minister pulling out on his plan to obstruct Rahul Gandhi’s rally. The rally was conducted in remembrance of the farmers that died in the Police Firing in an attempt to suppress the Farmer’s uproar.
In a meeting conducted on 12th of June by Amit Shah, it was indicated that over 100 of the BJP Leaders out of 165 might be denied the MLA ticket as a result of massive anger against them in their respective constituencies. It was also said in the meeting that the current Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chouhan has become a liability and would not be the face of BJP in the upcoming election.
Political analysts analyzing the situation expressed their opinion that the present trend is not irreversible but is likely to intensify and the Congress might win more seats than BJP in the upcoming elections. But looking at history, it has always been a close call between BJP and Congress in Madhya Pradesh.
All through the history both BJP and Party, were near to each other securing a vote share that accounted for less than 4% difference. But since the opinion poll does not factor the political alliances between Congress and other parties, there is a significant chance that victory is highly likely. There are parties like BSP which has a 7% vote share that can become allies to Congress not just in Madhya Pradesh but also in states like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The battle can be crucial for the top political parties in Madhya Pradesh Elections 2018.